You may not want to hear what you are about to read, but if you can rise above partisan and ideological predilections, you will find some food for thought.
Introduction
The following is what I believe, based on current and past events, will be the reality that, we as a nation will have to deal with in the coming years regardless of who is elected President of the United States in 2008. Some will say that my expectations are an overly pessimistic outlook. To me, however, they represent a reflection of the old adage, “hope for the best, but plan for the worst.”
The Future?
No matter what the next President does about American troops in Iraq, there will be no peace or stability in that nation for decades to come, even if then. It is highly likely (probably as opposed to possibly) that circumstances will force the next President to make a tough decision about leaving or returning American troops to Iraq.
If I could tell you now what will precipitate that conundrum, I would, but it will probably involve some combination of oil, terrorism, Iran, an attack on Israel or an overthrow of the Saudi Royal family by Islamic extremists.
The divisive fight over ending the war in Iraq (bringing our troops home) has sapped the American people of our collective willingness to use military force again anytime soon, unless, I believe, it is in response to another direct attack on American soil or a direct attack against the President, vice President or some other high ranking elected official or former President. Even if one of these incidents were to occur, if trust in the Presidency and a belief in the objectivity and competency of Congress in the area of foreign affairs are not restored, a call for the use of military force in the aftermath of another attack could result in more division in our nation than even what occured because of the Vietnam War. ( I am not taking a position on whether this is good or bad, or right or wrong at this time. All I am doing is telling you what I think the mood of the country is and will be for some time to come.)
This fatigue will seriously limit the options of the next President to respond to foreign crises. The next President may speak softly but he or she won’t be carrying a “big stick” as in years past, even if the size of the U.S. military is increased.
The next President of the United States is not going to send large numbers of American troops to Darfur or to intervene in any other humanitarian crisis on the continent of Africa or any place else around the world. (I hope I am proven wrong by the next President as it concerns this observation.)
Diplomacy (soft power) is not going to keep Iran from building a nuclear bomb. They will continue to say they won’t, but they will do it, and as a nation we are not going to be willing to use military force to stop them from doing it, and ultimately, neither will the Europeans, and that is why Iran will have a nuclear bomb. (If you don’t believe that Iran will lie about its ambition to build a nuclear bomb, just remember North Korea.)
There will not be peace or stability in the Middle East even if a Palestinian state is created. The sad truth is that a vocal, violent and active minority of Arabs in the Middle East will accept nothing less than the total annilation of Israel. Even if that occurred, which it will not, radical Islamic extremists who are opposed to Western society (culture) will not stop their terrorist attacks against the “West” (“Old Europe” and America and its other allies). (Europeans may dislike President Bush (II) but the terrorists don’t care.)
The price of a barrel of oil and a gallon of gas at the pump is going to continue increasing because of instability in the Middle East and in the oil producing countries on the continent of Africa. The leadership in Latin America, Mexico, China and Russia will also have a significant impact on the future price of oil and gas. The way it looks right now, it will be an impact that forces prices higher for their own economic benefit, and for some of them, to do harm to the American economy.
Americans must achieve a significant degree of energy independence within the next five (5) to ten (10) years. If we don’t our economy and a large part of the global economy will be destabilized because of the high price of crude oil resulting from instability in the oil fields of the Middle East and those on the continent of Africa as well as the actions of China and Russia.
The forces of instability in the Middle East and on the African continent are more likely to deal with China and Russia than the United States, if they were to succeed in seizing political power or in capturing operational control of the oil and gas fields and their production facilities.
Russia will continue to grow more provocative, confrontational and dangerous. Russia and Iran are going to become more of a threat to the national security interests of the United States than North Korea is now. (Russia has more nuclear weapons, an inferiority complex from having lost the Cold War and its superpower status (empire), and has control of oil and natural gas resources. Iran will have nuclear weapons and have dreams of Middle East hegemony.)
America will be susceptible to economic blackmail from the foreign nations that own the largest share of our national debt (Treasury Bills) unless we move beyond the stale partisan political debate of “tax cuts” versus “tax and spending”. To protect our economy and national security, the next Congress and President must put a plan in place to balance the federal budget, reduce the national debt by at least twenty-five percent (25%) and reduce our trade deficit within the next five (5) years.
This has to be done in a way that will not cause an economic recession. It can be done but it will require radically reforming the tax code by eliminating loopholes and making it fairer and simpler while prioritizing government spending. The Alternative Minimum Tax will have to be reformed or eliminated. Policies will have to be put in place to eliminate the wealth gap, income inequality, and allow all Americans to receive a quality education from pre-kindergarten to college and on to graduate or professional school.
Conclusion
No one can predict the future, but we all have to plan for tomorrow. let’s “hope for the best, but plan for the worst.” Even if the glass is half full, it is not a full glass of water so we need to get moving and making sure that we can keep the American glass at least half full and control our own destiny when it comes to where and how we get our “water.” If we act wisely, we won't have to worry about who moved our “cheese”.
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